Constellation strategy

◆ Constellation

This is the strategy we recommend and the one we run. Polymarket lists six correlated crypto markets at the same time: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, and BNB. Over a 5-minute window they tend to move together roughly 73 to 85% of the time.

The idea: trade the laggard. Each window Constellation watches all six markets at once. When enough of them are moving the same direction (a consensus) but one of them still lags behind the pack, and that laggard is priced near a coin flip inside the buy band, it buys the laggard. The bet is simple: the straggler catches up to the group before the window closes.

It watches everything automatically. Constellation always reads all six markets. The asset picker used by the other strategies does not apply here, so there is nothing to select. It shines when the group diverges and leaves one coin behind. In a fully lockstep market, where all six move together with no straggler, there is no laggard to buy, so Constellation correctly sits out rather than forcing a trade.

You tune it with a few dials, explained below: how strict the agreement has to be, how many of the six must agree, and how far the laggard must trail before it counts.