Politics / United States · Federal Reserve

What will the Fed decide on 16 September?

Connecting to Polymarket… Analysis as of – Open on Polymarket

01The board

Price of a Yes share = the market's probability. Changes are in percentage points.

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Market vs our read

normalised to 100%
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02Price history

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03Where the seats landed

04The Riksdag vote that decides it

A new PM is approved in parliament, not at the ballot box.

Possible S-led governments

who has to give way

05Factors behind the price

Impact is our 1–5 judgement of how much each factor moves the outcome.

    06Chances of winning: our model

    How the number is built

    each path multiplied out

      07Order book

      Resting Yes orders for the two front-runners. Depth is counted within 5¢ of the best price.

      08Money flow

      Traded per hour

      last 36 hours · backing a candidate · betting against

      24h: for vs against

      USD

      Big bets

      single fills of $1,000 or more

      Volume by candidate

      all-time

      Largest Yes holders

      shares

      09What happens next

      Dates from the Riksdag schedule and the Election Authority, as reported.

      10News that moved it

      Dated and sourced. Newest first.

        11Rules and sources

        Market data is pulled live from Polymarket's public APIs and refreshed every minute. The factors, model and news are 5MinuteBot's own editorial reading. They are not financial advice, and 5MinuteBot does not trade this market for you.